A fresh poll released on November 1, 2025, reveals that the mayoral race in New York City is tightening. According to the survey by Atlas Intel, Zohran Mamdani holds 41 percent support among likely voters, while his closest competitor, Andrew Cuomo (running as an independent), trails with 34 percent. Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa is third with 24 percent.
This result contrasts with other poll aggregations showing Mamdani maintaining a broader lead. For example, the Real Clear Politics average puts Mamdani at around 45 percent and Cuomo at 31 percent.
Key Context
- The poll margin of error is about ±3 percentage points, meaning the difference could be slightly narrower or wider in reality.
- Early voting is underway across the city, and both campaigns are intensifying efforts to mobilize their bases. The narrowing margin suggests momentum may be shifting.
- Mamdani, the Democratic nominee, remains the frontrunner, especially among younger and progressive voters. Meanwhile, Cuomo is capitalizing on support from older voters and moderates.
What to Watch
- Whether Cuomo’s narrowing gap can continue and whether it translates into victories in key boroughs and among undecided voters.
- Turnout patterns: younger voters have tended to favor Mamdani, while older voters appear to be tilting toward Cuomo.
- The impact of Curtis Sliwa’s candidacy: if Sliwa remains in contention, he could draw votes that might otherwise go to Cuomo, affecting the calculus.
- Last-minute campaign events, endorsements, debates, and external events that could shift voter sentiment in the final days before the election.
