A recent Siena University poll indicates that Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik is making noteworthy gains on Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul in a potential 2026 New York gubernatorial race.
According to the survey conducted between November 10-12, Hochul leads Stefanik 52% to 32%, narrowing from a previous gap of 52% to 27% in September. One of the most significant shifts is among independents, where Stefanik has now cut Hochul’s lead to just 4 points (40%–36%), down from an 18-point deficit earlier this year.
Stefanik’s support among Republicans has also surged, climbing to 79%, up from 68% in the previous poll. Meanwhile, Hochul’s strength remains solid among Democrats, with 78% backing her in the matchup.
Geographically, Hochul maintains dominance in New York City, but her lead shrinks significantly outside the city: she leads by just 9 points in the downstate suburbs and a mere 3 points upstate.
On the other hand, Hochul’s favorability rating has dropped to 43%, and only 42% of voters say they would re-elect her, while 48% prefer “someone else” — of whom over half favor a Republican candidate.
The poll surveyed more than 800 registered New York voters. Notably, it did not include Republican contender Bruce Blakeman, who has recently entered the race for the GOP nomination.
What to Watch:
- Whether Stefanik will officially enter the 2026 gubernatorial race and how she will build on her current momentum.
- How Hochul responds to the tightening poll numbers, particularly among independents.
- The role of other GOP challengers, like Bruce Blakeman, and whether they alter Stefanik’s trajectory.
- Campaign strategies focused on suburban and upstate voters, where the race is becoming more competitive.
Summary:
A new poll shows Elise Stefanik gaining ground on Governor Kathy Hochul, especially among independents. While Hochul still leads by a significant margin, the shrinking gap could reshape the dynamics of the potential 2026 New York governor’s race.
